Re-post of January Newsletter

This is a re-post of my January newsletter send to my clients from Advanced Access.




"Be always at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let each new year find you a better man."

~Benjamin Franklin

Featured In This Issue

Special Days and Events

Extending the Good News for Home Buyers

Tips to protect your home from severe weather

Cooking Corner

Special Days and Events

January 1 – New Year's Day

January 18 – Martin Luther King Jr. Day



The birth flower for January is the Carnation. The birth stone for January is the Garnet.

Extending the Good News for Home Buyers

by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR Research

Let's first turn to the terrific news regarding the housing stimulus. Earlier this month, the U.S. Congress overwhelmingly passed and the President signed into law new measures to maintain the momentum for a housing market recovery. The home buyer tax credit, originally scheduled to expire at the end of November will now be available through the middle of next year and more potential buyers will be able to take advantage of it. The income limit was also increased and many move-up buyers - not just first-timer purchasers - also will qualify. Furthermore, loan limits will not shrink as was planned for next year; in high-cost areas, the loan limit will remain at near $730,000 in 2010, thereby permitting more consumers to tap into the historically low mortgage rates.

As most of us are aware, the housing market recovery to date has been concentrated in the lower-end starter home segment. While the mid-priced market has begun to show signs of life, it is still far below normal activity. The upper-end remains sluggish. Therefore, enlarging the tax credit to include move-up buyers will add the necessary "juice" to broaden the recovery. The accompanying increased velocity in home sales will mean more economic activity. Also, even though there may be less impact in the overall net inventory (a person sells before buying so it looks as a "wash" on inventory), the months' supply will fall because of rising sales. Increased sales have the added benefit of making HVCC and appraisal issues less problematic since more comparables will be available.

Adding it all up, home sales are now expected to get a boost by roughly 15 percent next year. Existing-home sales are forecast to post 5.7 million units in 2010 (up from 5 million units in 2009). New home sales will also rise, reaching 550,000 (from 400,000). More importantly, inventory will likely fall to a 6-7 months' supply by the middle of next year. That draw down of inventory means that that there are likely to be modest home price gains. Roughly speaking a 2-5 percent price gain is likely in many parts of the country in the next year.

Rising home values will prevent home prices from overcorrecting even further. Home prices have, indeed, been overcorrecting and have led to sizable destruction in middle-class housing-related wealth. By contrast, stock market and financial wealth have experienced spectacular gains in the past nine months. Despite those gains, however, consumer confidence still continues to tread near historic lows.

Why is there a disconnect between the rising stock market and low consumer confidence? Most middle-class families have the majority of their wealth tied to housing and less to the stock market. So as long as home values fall, then consumer confidence and the broader economy will face challenges. Therefore, housing-focused stimulus measures will help households build up their housing-wealth (again) and lay the foundation for a sustainable economic recovery.

There were those who argued against the home buyer tax credit. They contended that it would be cheaper for the government just to let home values slide by $8,000 (the amount of the credit) because from a buyer's point of view, there is no difference between a $8,000 credit or an equal amount decline in home value. However, a further decline in home value by that amount would have translated into a $700 billion wealth destruction for middle-class home-owning families. Such an unnecessary loss of household wealth would hold back general consumer spending and thereby hinder a broader economic recovery. But with the tax credit extended and expanded, rising home sales will help nudge home values upward rather than continuing to overcorrect. Yes, the tax credit extension will have an impact on the federal budget deficit - around $10 billion. But those monies will be easily recovered as the economy gets a boost in addition to preserving the middle-class wealth.

The commercial real estate market will also benefit, though as always after some lag time. As the economy becomes more fully entrenched in "recovery" mode, employment will start to turn around. Rising employment and recovering consumer wealth will mean an eventual increase in demand for office, retail, and industrial space.

As always, there are some caveats. Despite the very positive news on the housing stimulus, there remain significant risks to the forecast. Mortgage rates will rise from their rock-bottom points as we move into the next year. The Federal Reserve will slowly start the unwinding of its mortgage-backed security purchases. Also, consumer prices will be watched for any sign of accelerating inflation. Bond investors, therefore, will be cautious about lending at such a low rates. The 30-year fixed rate is likely to reach 5.7 percent by the end of 2010 from the current 5.0 percent.

The labor market is another worry. Though anticipated, the rising unemployment rate is a painful reminder that not all is well. The unemployment rate in October zoomed into double digits - 10.2 percent, its highest level since 1983. And the climb is not over yet - look for unemployment to hit 10.4 percent before reversing. With 7 million job cuts in the past two years, the current total payroll employment at 130.8 million is even below the total jobs that existed in 2000. The country has about 25 million more people in 2009 compared to 2000, yet the total number of jobs has remained unchanged. The silver lining is that the pace of job cuts is now less sharp now than in the first half of the year. Still, the jobless rate unfortunately will remain stubbornly high for quite some time. While job creation is expected to turn positive by spring, unemployment will likely be at 9.5 percent by November 2010 at the time of the mid-term elections. A more-than-usual number of elected officials will be voted out.

Despite the risks of rising mortgage rates and rising unemployment, the housing outlook has significantly improved. As the fear of falling home values disappears, that one key negative factor that has held back home sales will no longer be in play. Happier days are ahead

Reprinted from REALTOR® Magazine December, 2009 with permission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Copyright 2009. All rights reserved

Tips to protect your home from severe weather

When people think of winterizing their homes, most often their heating bills spring to mind - along with insulation and weather stripping. The winter months bring not only high energy bills, but also an increased chance of certain kinds of damage to your home and its contents.

A few precautions can help protect you from serious losses and disruptions this season:

Indoor floods

While home fires make headlines, water damage is more common and often just as severe. The most frequent cause is faulty or broken pipes. In fact, Fireman's Fund Personal Risk Consultants see a surge in water damage during the first three months of the year, when pipes are most likely to freeze and burst. Be sure to insulate exposed pipes.

If you leave your home to spend time in warmer climates or even just a weekend on the ski slopes, always leave the heat on in your home and set it to at least 55 degrees. Don't let high fuel prices tempt you into going lower. The pipes that come in through your foundation or run through external walls can reach temperatures much lower than the setting on your thermostat. Have someone check on your home while you are away.

A foolproof way to protect your home from broken or leaking pipes at any time of year is to install an automatic water shutoff system. Attached to your home's main incoming water line, the device senses increased water flow caused by a burst pipe and automatically shuts the system off. Fireman's Fund Insurance Company recommends the Leak Defense System from Sentinel Hydrosolutions. A 5 percent premium discount is available to policyholders who use this system, so let your insurance agent know if you install one.

Chimney and furnace fires

While fire presents a year-round risk, certain causes of fire occur more frequently during the winter. Chimneys, boilers and furnaces are particular risks. Approximately 25,000 residential fires begin in a fireplace or chimney every year, according to the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

Why so many? Over time, a layer of unburned carbon-based residues (sometimes referred to as fireplace creosote) builds up along the inside walls of your chimney and can eventually catch fire. The solution is to have a trusted, professional chimneysweep clean and inspect your chimney annually.

An annual inspection is just as important for those with furnaces and boilers. And, remember, your furnace room should never be used for general storage. Wood scraps, old books, paint, solvents and other flammable liquids are significant fire hazards and should be removed and stored elsewhere.

Ice dams and old trees

Snow and ice storms can create a number of potential threats to your home. One of these is ice damming, which occurs in the days after a snowstorm.

Icicles hanging from your eaves, while they may be beautiful, usually indicate that a dangerous ice dam has formed. An ice dam is a build-up of ice that can form at the edge of your roof when snow melts but is blocked from draining. When more snow melts and is trapped behind this ice, the resulting water backup can soak through your roof and cause damage to ceilings, walls and more. The most common causes of ice dams are clogged gutters and insufficient insulation, both of which are easy to remedy.

Mature trees on your property represent another potential hazard during storms. Strong winds or frozen water that covers old branches with a heavy coat of ice can lead to failure and collapse, a clear threat to your home or other nearby structures. Have a trusted horticultural expert take a look at your property's mature trees and prune or cut down unstable specimens.

For more advice on how to protect your home from winter's severe weather, visit www.firemansfund.com.

Courtesy of ARA Content



Cooking Corner

Raspberry Cream

Courtesy FoodNetwork.com

1 cup raspberries

3 tablespoons sugar, plus more to taste

Freshly squeezed lemon juice, to taste

1/2 cup heavy cream, chilled

Directions

1 tablespoon confectioners' sugar Mash the berries and sugar in a small saucepan with a wooden spoon. Bring to a boil over medium-high heat, stirring frequently. Reduce heat to low, and simmer, stirring frequently until the berries breakdown and get juicy, about 5 minutes. Strain mixture through a fine-meshed sieve into a bowl; discard the seeds. Cool. Adjust the sweetness or tartness of the sauce with more sugar and lemon juice, as needed.

Beat the cream until it holds a light peak. Sift the confectioners' sugar into the cream. Continue beating until the cream holds a holds a soft, but firm peak. Gently fold raspberry sauce into the whipped cream until blended. Store in an airtight container in the refrigerator until needed.

Yield: about 2 cups

Hope you've enjoyed January’s Newsletter. Please call or send an e-mail if you have any questions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate.



Bud McHarg

Arrowhead Resort Realty

Office: 9093362289

Cell: 9513141263

Toll Free: 8005755659 Email me at:

bud@budmcharg.com

Visit my website at:

http://ArrowheadResortHomeSales.com